The deepening friction between PAS and Bersatu within the Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition threatens to fracture the coalition's unified electoral showing in Kedah, potentially denying Menteri Besar Muhammad Sanusi Md Nor the decisive majority his supporters have anticipated. According to political analyst Awang Azman Pawi, the internal party conflict could trigger voter confusion and ultimately erode Bersatu's performance in multiple state constituencies, a development that would significantly reshape the political landscape in the northern state.
The rivalry between these two major PN components has become increasingly difficult to contain at the grassroots level. Unlike the disciplined coordination seen during the 2022 general election, when PN presented a relatively cohesive front to voters, the present atmosphere within the coalition appears fractious and prone to periodic eruptions. Awang Azman's assessment suggests that this deterioration in coalition harmony carries genuine consequences for the electoral mathematics facing both parties.
Bersatu, the party led by former Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin, has undergone considerable turbulence in recent years. The party's inability to maintain consistent discipline among its membership and leadership tiers has reflected broader struggles within PN. When coalition partners compete visibly for the same voter base or appear to undermine each other's campaigns, the electorate often responds by withdrawing enthusiasm for both. This dynamic becomes especially pronounced in state-level contests where local personalities and inter-party rivalries carry outsized influence.
PAS, as the numerically larger PN component, has traditionally wielded considerable influence over coalition strategy in constituencies across the northern corridor. The Islamic party's extensive grassroots network and established voter base give it structural advantages that Bersatu, as a newer and smaller formation, struggles to match. Yet Bersatu's role in PN remains significant, and tensions between the parties over seat allocations and campaign resources frequently surface in public disputes.
For Kedah specifically, the electoral implications warrant careful consideration. Muhammad Sanusi Md Nor, the incumbent Menteri Besar from PAS, commands personal popularity that extends beyond strict party boundaries. However, a fractured coalition would make his path to expanding the government's state assembly majority considerably more difficult. Voters frustrated by visible inter-party conflict may opt to support opposition-aligned candidates, effectively splitting the PN vote and producing a fragmented state parliament.
The confusion factor identified by Awang Azman touches on a genuine voter behaviour phenomenon. When coalition partners send mixed signals or appear to compete against one another rather than presenting unified messaging, undecided voters often respond by either abstaining or switching allegiance. In closely contested constituencies, this behaviour can produce unexpected results that neither party anticipated or desired.
Historically, Kedah has proven fertile ground for PN's message, particularly among rural and semi-urban constituencies where both PAS and Bersatu draw support. However, this traditional advantage can evaporate rapidly if coalition discipline collapses. The state occupies strategic importance within PN's broader political architecture, serving as a template for how the coalition functions in other state contexts. A disappointing showing in Kedah could therefore ripple across other states where PN contests upcoming elections.
The analyst's warning merits serious attention from PN leadership, particularly given the coalition's need to demonstrate stability and coherence to voters across Malaysia. The coalition already faces scepticism regarding its internal governance and decision-making processes. A visible split during a major state election campaign would further damage PN's credibility as a serious political force capable of managing national governance.
Bersatu's situation presents particular challenges. The party entered its strategic partnership within PN partly to escape diminished electoral performance and marginalisation. Friction with the larger PAS component risks undermining this rationale entirely. Meanwhile, PAS faces the opposite calculation, balancing its desire to lead PN with recognition that the coalition's success depends on maintaining Bersatu's participation and contribution.
For Malaysian observers and voters in other states, the Kedah situation provides important signals about PN's internal stability and capacity for sustained cooperation. Coalition politics in Malaysia has historically proven unstable when comprising parties with distinct ideologies and organisational cultures. Whether PN can overcome these inherent tensions remains an open question, with Kedah serving as a crucial test case.
The coming weeks will reveal whether PN leadership can impose sufficient discipline on both PAS and Bersatu to prevent a complete coalition split during the campaign. Success would require visible reconciliation of grievances, clearer seat-sharing agreements, and unified public messaging. Failure would vindicate analyst warnings and potentially reshape Kedah's political configuration in ways that extend well beyond the immediate election cycle.
